With the US Supreme Court set to hear argument today about the lawfulness of Donald Trump’s travel ban today, ForwardKeys, which predicts future travel patterns by analysing more than 17 million flight booking transactions a day, reports a substantial underperformance in travel to the USA since the original ban.
Olivier Jager, CEO, ForwardKeys, said: “In the period between Donald Trump announcing his first travel ban and the federal judge’s initial temporary blockage, bookings for inbound travel to the USA fell 6.5%, a phenomenon which has since been named the Trump Slump. In the 15-month period between that first announcement and now (up to 20th April 2018), inbound travel to the USA was 1.4% down while global international travel grew 5.0%, on the equivalent period a year earlier.
Looking ahead for the coming three months (1st May – 31st July), flight bookings to the USA are 2.9% ahead of the equivalent period the year before. However, flight bookings globally over the same period are 5.9% ahead, so one has to conclude that since announcing the first travel ban, the USA has underperformed in the context of robust global travel demand.”
Olivier Continued: “ForwardKeys is not claiming that the United States’ inbound travel difficulties are caused by Donald Trump’s policies – not least because exchange rates have been challenging. For example, in the period January 2017 – March 2018, the value of the £ pound and the € euro appreciated 13% and 16%, respectively, against the $ dollar, making the US a significantly more expensive destination.”
