Business aviation market forecast: Fleet will grow 33 percent over coming decade

Jetcraft has released its third annual 10-year business aviation market forecast. The global business aviation installed base of just more than 21,000 aircraft will surpass the 28,000 unit mark (net retirements) in 2026, growing 33% during the forecast period.

Jetcraft’s 2017 forecast calls for 8,349 unit deliveries representing $252 billion in revenues (based on 2017 pricing) to be realized by 2026. North America will again lead the way with 62% market share of unit deliveries, followed by Europe with 17% and Asia with 12%.

“Pinpointing the transition into a new business cycle is challenging,” said Jetcraft’s Chairman Jahid Fazal-Karim. “Our forecast indicates we are finally exiting the post-2008 recession period, entering several years of steadier, healthier growth and expanding revenues. This new business cycle should shape our industry for years to come.”

Pre-Owned Market Pace Improves

The forecast characterizes a healthy pre-owned market across all categories, with significant improvement in the Large aircraft segment. Furthermore, absorption rates for pre-owned aircraft should shorten during a period of important new program releases during the coming years.

Larger Aircraft Preference, Substantially More Revenues

Through 2026, the forecast projects significantly more revenue, peaking at $31.4 billion in 2025. This, despite limited incremental growth from a unit delivery perspective, as demand continues to shift more toward widebody models at the expense of narrowbodies. The Large jet category will constitute 31% (2,589 units) of the total unit delivery forecast, accounting for more than 63% of total revenue.

“Large aircraft will drive a higher-revenue market in the coming decade,” said Jetcraft President Chad Anderson. “Jetcraft’s experience reinforces this trend, as we’ve seen more and more customers preferring larger, long-range aircraft to support their needs in today’s global business environment.”

Over the past decade, the average aircraft list price increased by 56%. The forecast sees that number increasing 16% by 2026, as 98% of the forecasted revenues are for widebody models such as the Hemisphere, Global 7000, and Gulfstream 500 and 600.

Other Key Forecast Findings and Observations Include:

• Bombardier will re-acquire the highest revenue market share over the forecast period, with 29.2%.
• Cessna maintains the top position for unit deliveries, at 27.3%.
• For UHNWIs, wealth creation prospects will continue to grow, especially in Asia, further affecting the business aviation market.